Every fantasy season, there’s one pitcher who goes largely ignored while quietly delivering elite value. This year, that pitcher is Shane Smith of the Chicago White Sox — a Rule 5 pick who’s turning heads with every start, even if fantasy managers haven’t noticed yet.
Through 12 starts in 2025, Smith has emerged as a rock-solid contributor across the board. Yet somehow, he remains rostered in just 23% of Yahoo leagues. If you’re in a competitive league, that number should jump off the screen. Because what Smith lacks in name recognition and win totals, he makes up for with undeniable consistency and ratio-sustaining production.
🌱 From Unknown to Unhittable
Smith didn’t arrive with much fanfare. Undrafted out of Wake Forest following Tommy John surgery in 2021, he quietly signed with the Brewers, then was snatched by the White Sox as the first overall pick in the 2024 Rule 5 Draft. Fast forward to June 2025, and he’s gone from fringe roster filler to a legitimate fantasy weapon.
Here’s what he’s done so far:
- 2.45 ERA
- 1.14 WHIP
- 60 strikeouts in 62.1 innings
- Allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in all 12 starts
Those are not streamer numbers — that’s a stable mid-rotation fantasy starter, hidden in plain sight.
🎯 Command, Sequencing, and a Devastating Changeup
The core of Smith’s breakout lies in his pitch mix and maturity on the mound. While many young pitchers struggle with control or over-rely on one pitch, Smith has shown poise and balance.
The centerpiece of his arsenal is a filthy changeup, which opponents are hitting just .111 against. Backed by a 17.4% swinging-strike rate and only 65.8% contact, the pitch generates both whiffs and weak contact. It’s not just his best secondary — it’s one of the most effective changeups in the league this year.
He throws it 20–22% of the time, often after establishing the fastball, which adds deception and keeps hitters guessing. Against left-handed hitters in particular, the pitch has become a nightmare — diving late, with fading horizontal movement.
🔥 A Fastball That Sets the Tone
Smith’s fastball has also taken a step forward. He’s averaging 95.1 mph on the four-seamer and has topped out at 98.3. More importantly, he’s commanding it — keeping it in the zone 68% of the time and generating an impressive 10.6% swinging-strike rate on the pitch.
He throws it over 43% of the time, using it to get ahead in counts and set up his devastating changeup and slider. It’s a classic one-two approach that’s more effective than flashy — and that’s what makes Smith so useful in fantasy formats that reward consistency over volatility.
⚠️ The Winless Wonder
There’s a reason Smith isn’t getting picked up in more leagues, and it has nothing to do with his ability. It’s wins.
With only 2 wins in 12 starts, Smith has suffered from minimal run support on a White Sox team that ranks near the bottom of the league in most offensive categories. It’s not for lack of pitching — he’s done his job — but fantasy managers often chase wins without accounting for the full picture.
This is where savvy managers find their edge. Smith may not boost your win column, but he can carry your ERA and WHIP — and deliver a strikeout per inning while doing it.
📊 The Undervalued Ratio Anchor
Fantasy success isn’t always about star power. Sometimes, it’s about identifying pitchers who limit damage, stay consistent, and give you a stable weekly floor. Smith checks every one of those boxes.
- .158 BABIP on the changeup
- .187 opponent average on the fastball
- Combined .583 OPS allowed on four-seamer
- Keeps the ball on the ground (33.3% GB on FA, 28.9% GB on CH)
That’s not just solid. That’s foundational.
📈 The Bottom Line
Shane Smith is not a flash-in-the-pan. He’s not a fluky hot start. He’s a pitcher with command of five pitches, a dominant changeup, a fastball with life, and the mentality of a 10-year vet.
If you’re hunting for wins, you might want to look elsewhere. But if you’re building a staff that can win over the long haul — with clean innings, quiet dominance, and elite ratios — Smith should be your next add.
Because while everyone else is chasing names, you could be winning with numbers.